Moutai earns 230 million yuan a day, while Tinghua liquor loses nearly 60 millio

As the mid-year reporting period for A-shares draws to a close, many listed liquor companies have completed the release of their "mid-term exam" results.

Overall, in the first half of this year, against the backdrop of the industry entering an adjustment period, the performance of listed liquor companies has been highly differentiated, which can be described as "some are happy while others are worried," but their stock prices have generally been under pressure. According to statistics from professional institutions: the liquor sector has fallen for three consecutive years; as of the morning closing on August 28, it has fallen by more than 34% this year.

Moutai earns 230 million yuan a day, while Tinghua Liquor loses nearly 60 million yuan

The "Matthew Effect" in the performance of A-share liquor companies has been strengthened, with leading liquor enterprises maintaining strong performance, and small and medium-sized liquor companies generally under pressure.

The "industry leader" Kweichow Moutai (600519) achieved a revenue of 81.931 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 17.76%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%; both revenue and net profit once again reached historical highs. Calculated based on net profit, Kweichow Moutai earned an average of nearly 230 million yuan per day in the first half of the year, while the figure for the same period last year was 199 million yuan.

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As a representative of domestic light-flavored liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) disclosed in its semi-annual report on the evening of the 27th that in the first half of this year, the company achieved a revenue of about 22.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.65%; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 8.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.27%.

Many small and medium-sized liquor companies have also released their semi-annual performance or performance forecasts. ST Chuntian (600381), which is involved in false advertising of Tinghua Liquor, achieved a net loss attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of nearly 60 million yuan in the first half of the year. Rock Shares (Shanghai Gui Jiu, 600696) suffered a loss of more than 77 million yuan in the first half of the year. Rock Shares stated that in the first half of the year, the overall recovery of the liquor industry did not meet expectations. Huangtai Liquor (000995) is expected to change from profit to loss, with an estimated loss range of 3 million to 5 million yuan, while the net profit attributable to the parent company in the same period last year was 3.0385 million yuan.

Huafu Securities analyst Liu Chang stated that in the first half of this year, the market share and resources of the liquor industry have been concentrated towards advantaged brands. In this environment, mid-to-high-end liquors, relying on their brand strength and market recognition, are more likely to win consumer favor.

Guohaisheng Securities analyst Liu Jieming believes that against the backdrop of overall demand pressure, the performance of liquor companies with weaker brand and channel capabilities may decline, while the performance of liquor companies with solid operations and a strong market foundation is expected to maintain steady growth. It is expected that the performance differentiation of listed liquor companies will become more apparent in the future.Baijiu industry stock prices under pressure, to sell or hold on?

Despite mixed performance, the stock prices of the baijiu industry are generally under pressure.

According to statistics from Tonghuashun, a financial data service provider, the baijiu sector has fallen for three consecutive years. As of the morning closing on August 28th, it has accumulated a decline of over 34% this year. In terms of individual stocks, Rock Shares (Shanghai GuiJiu) and Huangtai Liquor's stock prices have fallen by more than 60% and 52% respectively this year; Kweichow Moutai's stock price has also dropped by more than 18%, and once again failed to hold the 1,400 yuan mark.

Kweichow Moutai's recent stock price K-line chart

Since the beginning of this year, the baijiu sector has encountered quite a few bearish news.

In the first half of the year, the loose price of Feitian Moutai broke through 2,100 yuan, and there were even rumors of "scalpers" running away, causing the market to worry about Kweichow Moutai and even baijiu stocks. In July of this year, the Global Research Department of UBS Investment Bank released a report, downgrading the ratings of baijiu listed companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Shares.

Behind the decline in stock prices is also the reduction of baijiu stocks by funds. Since 2024, public funds have successively reduced their holdings of baijiu stocks. According to media statistics, as of the end of the second quarter, the number of funds holding Kweichow Moutai decreased by 252 compared to the end of the first quarter, and the number of shares held decreased by 5.8453 million; the number of funds holding Wuliangye decreased by 210 compared to the end of the first quarter, and the position decreased by 34.881 million shares.

Yinhua Fund Manager Jiao Wei also reduced his holdings of baijiu stocks in the second quarter. In his view, currently, China's economy is at a new round of transformation, and past successful business models such as baijiu, especially high-end baijiu, are facing simultaneous external and internal challenges. To a certain extent, the higher the gross profit margin and pricing power in the past, the more likely it is to be impacted and questioned under the new economic model.

However, some fund managers have chosen to hold on to baijiu stocks. As of the end of the second quarter, among the top ten major positions held by the Yifangda Blue Chip Selection Mixed Fund managed by the well-known fund manager Zhang Kun, the number of Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Shares remained unchanged from the end of the first quarter, and Shanxi Fenjiu even received a slight increase. Zhang Kun believes that as long as the living standards of the Chinese people continue to improve and they constantly improve their lives, a group of companies that provide high-quality products and services will be able to continue to grow and create returns. Even if they maintain the current level of profits, their dividend yield has already approached or exceeded some traditional dividend stocks.Zheshang Securities analyst Yang Ji also maintains an optimistic attitude towards the white liquor sector. Yang Ji stated that although the consumption scenarios for white liquor have weakened in recent years, the medium and long-term consumption upgrade trend is still worth looking forward to. It is expected that the white liquor industry will achieve good growth in the next two to three years, and the growth of leading liquor companies is likely to outperform the overall industry level. This is particularly true when considering the brand strength of the leading liquor companies, which gives them a stronger ability to navigate through market cycles.