The oil and gas stocks have completely collapsed! Is the oil price entering a do
On September 4th, oil and gas stocks in both Hong Kong and A-shares markets plummeted!
As of the midday break, in the Hong Kong stock market, China Oil and Gas Holdings (00702.HK) plummeted by 6.35%, PetroChina (00857.HK) fell by 5.92%, CNOOC (00883.HK) fell by 5.65%, COSL (02883.HK) fell by 3.82%, and Sinopec (00386.HK) fell by 2.86%.
In the A-shares market, the "three barrels of oil" also suffered a heavy blow.
As of the time of writing, PetroChina (601857.SH) fell by 4.94%, CNOOC (600938.SH) fell by 4.98%, and Sinopec (600028.SH) fell by 0.75%.
In terms of news, international oil prices plummeted overnight. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $3.21, a decrease of 4.36%, at $70.34 per barrel. Brent November crude oil futures closed down $3.77, a decrease of 4.86%, at $73.75 per barrel.
According to Wind data, as of the time of writing, the Shanghai crude oil index and the main futures contract also showed a significant decline, both falling by more than 4%. International oil prices continued to weaken, with Brent crude and WTI futures main contracts both recording declines.
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The reason is that, under the unclear global oil demand outlook, the expectation of increased supply has heated up, bringing a significant bearish impact on international oil prices.
According to representatives participating in the discussion, OPEC and its allies will gradually resume production in a few weeks, increasing the supply by 180,000 barrels per day. As the news of a possible increase in production by OPEC+ continues to ferment, it has put obvious pressure on oil prices.
Ritterbusch analysts said: "We believe OPEC+ is in an exceptionally difficult situation, as their determination to support oil prices is being challenged by non-OPEC oil-producing countries that have been continuously losing market share for a long period. This means that in the case of falling oil prices, there will be a loss of revenue, which will intensify the concerns of OPEC's major oil-producing countries about budgetary needs."Additionally, reports indicate that the governor of the Central Bank of Libya has stated there are "strong" signs that an intergovernmental agreement is nearing, aimed at resolving disputes and stimulating the return of vital crude oil production. It is understood that reconciliation between the various Libyan governments would pave the way for over 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil supply to re-enter the global market. Prior to the production halt order issued on August 26, Libya's oil production was approximately 1 million barrels per day, with the vast majority coming from the eastern region. Over the past week, production has plummeted to about 450,000 barrels per day.
Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger stated that the return of Libyan crude oil "would obviously clash with the influx of crude oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)." "If both are reintroduced to the market simultaneously, it would clearly lead to an oversupply in the market."
On the demand side, recent expectations of economic weakness in the United States and Europe, coupled with a series of underwhelming economic and trade data from China, the largest crude oil importer, have sparked concerns about the outlook for oil demand, exerting significant pressure on market sentiment.
StoneX analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted, "Recent data shows no signs of acceleration in import demand from Europe, North America, and China, indicating that the oil market will not be as tight as anticipated a few months ago." He added, "The surplus supply needs to be absorbed either by a reduction in oil production or a sudden increase in global economic recovery. Neither of these scenarios is likely or imminent."
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs wrote in a report on Tuesday that artificial intelligence could hurt oil prices over the next decade, as the technology can improve logistics to reduce demand and increase the number of profitable resources to be exploited, thereby increasing supply.
Amidst the backdrop of "weak demand and increasing supply," many institutions believe that the future of oil prices is not optimistic.
Donghai Futures energy analyst Wang Yilu stated that in the long term, oil prices will return to the logic of supply and demand. The performance of industrial demand in the crude oil market after September and October will be crucial. If industrial demand remains weak at that time, coupled with average heating oil demand, oil prices may face greater downward pressure.

Morgan Stanley has reduced its Brent price estimate by $5 per barrel to an average of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter, expecting prices to fluctuate in the range of $78 to $75 per barrel next year.
Goldman Sachs also lowered its Brent forecast by $5 per barrel, adjusting this year's price range to $70 to $85 per barrel, and stated that it expects an average price of $77 per barrel by 2025.